The price of Dogecoin continues to signal that the current move is more likely an ongoing adjustment than the start of a real rebound. Both on-chain indicators and momentum readings point to weakness: the token remains below key moving averages while sell-side pressure grows, creating an environment traders and treasuries must treat with caution. Under the present setup, an upward move is not the probable scenario.
DOGE technical landscape and ETF timelines
Momentum indicators across multiple timeframes show a market still dominated by bearish control rather than recovery impulses. Dogecoin trades below the MA-20, MA-50 and MA-200 —a configuration that, as noted by TradersUnion, usually confirms weakness in short, medium and long-term structure. The RSI also reflects a negative divergence that often anticipates further declines, while MACD and ADX readings reinforce the idea of fading momentum rather than the formation of fresh demand.
Definitions help frame the picture: the RSI measures the relationship between recent price swings; moving averages smooth price trends; MACD compares two moving averages to capture momentum shifts; ADX reveals the strength of a trend regardless of direction.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows a clear withdrawal of conviction among long-term holders, who increased their selling pressure by 280% in mid-November —more than 237 million DOGE distributed in ten days. At the same time, exchange activity creates additional short-term liquidity that can pressure price further. An inflow of 162 million DOGE to Robinhood, reported by AmbCrypto, adds immediate capacity for large holders to unwind positions, a factor known to increase intraday volatility.
From a technical standpoint, analysts point to $0.150 as the critical support that defines the near-term risk map. Losing that level opens the path toward $0.140 and potentially $0.127. More severe projections outline scenarios down to $0.095 or even $0.07 if support collapses, according to Yahoo Finance. For any bullish shift to be credible, price would need to reclaim $0.163 and then challenge resistance near $0.186.
Short-term charts show extreme conditions that can produce brief relief bounces without changing the broader trend. On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI falling below 10 signals intense overselling —a setup that historically allows temporary rebounds but still carries a 30–40% probability of another washout before stability returns.
Regulatory events add complexity. Decisions related to Dogecoin-linked ETFs have been postponed in some cases, and other proposals remain pending. If any of these products ultimately launch, they could alter the demand profile, but the current delays leave uncertainty in place for now.
With technical divergences building, long-term holders distributing and exchanges receiving large inflows, Dogecoin remains in a structure prone to further declines before any sustainable recovery can form. For traders and treasuries, the next verifiable milestone remains the regulatory decision scheduled for November 2025 —a factor that could redefine the short-term risk balance.