Polymarket achieved CFTC approval and reentered the regulated U.S. market after an amendment to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Order of Designation. The authorization integrates the platform into supervised financial infrastructure and allows U.S. users to access the service through Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) and traditional brokers. The move positions Polymarket within fully regulated channels for intermediated access to prediction markets in the United States.
Polymarket’s Regulated Return to the U.S. Market
The November 25 approval formalizes Polymarket’s return following its 2022 withdrawal, when the firm faced a fine and settlement of $1.4 million for operating an unregistered derivatives market. The decision marks the beginning of Polymarket’s regulated operations in the U.S. after three years of absence.
As part of its compliance strategy, the company acquired QCEX—an exchange and clearinghouse authorized by the CFTC—in a transaction of approximately $112 million closed in August 2025. Before the amended order, the firm had received earlier regulatory signals, including a no-action letter issued around September 2025 that indicated a viable pathway toward full authorization.
A prediction market is a platform where participants buy and sell contracts whose payout depends on the outcome of future events; it functions as an aggregator of collective expectations. The approval transitions Polymarket’s operating model into a structure governed by exchange and clearinghouse rules, creating a framework of increased oversight and accountability.
The reopening has reignited interest from investors and competitors. The company now aspires to a valuation between $10–12 billion, compared to an estimated $1 billion just months earlier. It is close to finalizing a funding round of around $200 million, and according to reports, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has considered an investment of up to $2 billion. Founder Shayne Coplan could become one of the newest individual billionaires if these operations materialize.
Competition is intensifying. Kalshi already operates as a regulated market with monthly volume of $4.4 billion, and Gemini is seeking CFTC approval to launch its own prediction market—signals of an accelerating race for liquidity and market share in event-driven contracts. Polymarket has also secured strategic partnerships, including an integration with PrizePicks to offer CFTC-permitted contracts, and added Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board as part of its broader public strategy.
However, doubts persist about market integrity. A Columbia University study from November 2025 estimated that up to 25% of the platform’s reported volume could correspond to wash trading—a practice that creates an artificial appearance of activity and liquidity. In addition, organizations such as the American Gaming Association have raised concerns about the boundary between prediction markets and gambling, keeping attention on consumer protection and state-level compliance.
Polymarket already functions as a source of market-based signals. For instance, odds related to ETF approvals have been used as real-time sentiment indicators—XRP above 99% and DOGE between 53% and 94% at different intervals—with search engines beginning to integrate this data as a reflection of collective expectations.
The CFTC authorization transforms Polymarket into a regulated market actor with access to traditional intermediaries, but its long-term success will depend on execution quality, the depth and integrity of liquidity, and consistent supervision against practices such as wash trading.