Hedera (HBAR) rebounded about 11%, but near-term structure still looks fragile as selling pressure remains dominant across spot and derivatives. The next decision point is whether HBAR can defend the $0.13 area and avoid slipping into the deeper $0.10–$0.12 support band.
Key supports and BTC correlation will drive the next move
HBAR’s bounce can still read as a counter-trend move inside a broader downtrend. With a reported seven-day correlation to Bitcoin near 0.85, HBAR is highly exposed to BTC-led risk-on or risk-off rotation. That linkage means even strong token-specific buying can get overrun if Bitcoin weakens.
Derivatives positioning suggests leverage is skewed to the short side. Liquidation data cited shows short liquidations outweighing long liquidations (about $9.9 million vs. $6.0 million), which increases the odds of abrupt squeezes if a credible bid appears. At the same time, that imbalance can also worsen downside moves if support fails and cascading stops hit.
From a technical risk standpoint, the $0.13 level is the line in the sand. A failure to hold $0.13 would likely intensify sell pressure and increase the probability of a retest of $0.10, with an additional downside scenario toward $0.065 if liquidation and stop-loss cascades accelerate. Elevated participation is present, with a cited 24-hour volume around 528.65M, but high volume alone does not confirm a durable base without support holding and follow-through buying.
The clearest upside path described is mechanical: a Bitcoin recovery that forces shorts to cover. An outsized BTC rally could rotate flows into altcoins and trigger a short-covering cascade in HBAR given the current leverage imbalance, especially if $0.13 holds cleanly. Observers also frame the next 30 days as a critical window, where improvements in on-chain flows, funding rates, and funding-driven spot demand would strengthen the case for a sustained reversal rather than a brief bounce.
Fundamentally, Hedera’s enterprise positioning remains part of the medium-term support narrative. The text cites an enterprise governance model led by a corporate council and points to partnerships referenced in reporting (Repsol, SWIFT, and DTCC) as demand anchors that could matter once volatility compresses. It also notes institutional access narratives, including an NYSE-listed HBAR ETF and tokenization/DeFi-linked initiatives, plus an IoT connectivity project with SpaceX, as evidence of broader integration.
Bottom line: HBAR’s rebound is real, but it has not neutralized breakdown risk. If Bitcoin weakens and $0.13 fails, downside into $0.10–$0.12 (or lower) becomes the operational risk case; if BTC strengthens and $0.13 holds, the short-heavy positioning could fuel a sharper recovery supported by the enterprise narrative.