XRP appears on track to end 2025 in negative territory, potentially snapping its two-year streak of annual gains. After an 81% rally in 2023 and a 238% surge in 2024, year-to-date performance is down 7.51%, shifting the narrative for traders and institutional product teams.
Technicals weaken even as institutional signals stay constructive
XRP lost key technical support late in 2025, falling below $2.15 and trading around the $1.90 to $2.00 range as bearish formations emerged. Analysts cited a head-and-shoulders pattern and declining on-chain activity as drivers of increased selling pressure and Q4 outflows. Short-term technical models point to a potential stabilization area near $1.20, while some downside scenarios have been placed as low as $0.34. One published year-end floor projection stands at $2.05.
Spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded sustained inflows, extending a 25-day streak that brought combined assets under management close to $1.0 billion. By mid-December 2025, cumulative net inflows were cited at roughly $975 million, signaling persistent demand through regulated wrappers.
Regulatory developments were also framed as supportive for institutional participation. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s $50 million settlement and withdrawal of appeals were described as providing clarity that observers link to expectations of $5 to $7 billion in additional ETF inflows by 2026. XRP’s inclusion in the Nasdaq Crypto US Settlement Price Index in June 2025 was cited as another marker of institutional integration.
Several potential upside drivers were cited as catalysts that could improve sentiment or liquidity conditions. These included Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin plans in Japan, expanded tokenization on the XRP Ledger, and emerging supply-squeeze dynamics. A potential reduction in Federal Reserve policy rates was also listed as a macro factor that could lift liquidity into crypto risk assets. These items were positioned as supportive variables rather than guaranteed drivers of price appreciation.
Forecasts remain widely dispersed and often conflict with the current downtrend narrative. One global bank model projected $5.50 by year-end 2025, an independent commentator suggested $10 to $13, and a commercial AI forecast anticipated levels above $6.50 in November 2025. These bullish projections sit alongside more conservative technical ranges and explicit downside risk scenarios. The spread between targets reinforces that outcomes are highly sensitive to market structure and positioning into year-end.
Overall, the stated market readings and technical indicators lean toward a negative close for 2025, which would interrupt XRP’s two-year run of annual gains. At the same time, sustained ETF inflows and the regulatory settlement were presented as factors that could limit losses or enable a late recovery. The final outcome is framed as a balance between selling pressure and institutional demand. That tension is positioned as the key determinant for where XRP finishes 2025.