Ben Cowen warned that Ethereum is unlikely to print a new all-time high in 2026, arguing that ETH remains tightly correlated with Bitcoin and exposed to macro-driven downside. He said a Bitcoin peak in late 2025 followed by a 2026 contraction would make an independent, sustained ETH rally difficult to sustain.
Cowen’s core thesis links Ethereum’s upside to Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics. He expects Bitcoin to top in late 2025 and then transition into a bear phase that historically suppresses durable altcoin strength, keeping ETH tethered to broader BTC-led sentiment. He also described the current environment as a “Bitcoin-maxi” cycle, implying weaker relative performance for ETH when risk appetite fades.
Bitcoin dependence is the gating variable
Cowen grounded the view in quantitative modeling and historical comparisons across prior cycles. He pointed to patterns seen in post-U.S. presidential election years that have preceded corrections, reinforcing that Ethereum’s trajectory may remain subordinate to Bitcoin’s larger market swing.
He also cautioned that Ethereum could still stage a brief upside move that fails to hold. He described a potential bull trap scenario in which ETH breaks resistance, attracts buyers, and then reverses sharply back below that level. In that setup, ETH could retest or even exceed its prior all-time high of $4,878, only to fall back toward the $2,000 support zone if macro pressure returns.
What this implies for positioning and risk management
Cowen extended the skepticism beyond Ethereum to the broader altcoin complex. He argued that many projects have already spent their cyclical momentum and may struggle to reclaim prior peaks, even if short-term rallies appear. Within that framework, he still characterized Ethereum as the only altcoin with a realistic path to an eventual all-time high, but only under favorable Bitcoin conditions and sustained market breadth.
The takeaway is tactical rather than speculative: watch Bitcoin and stay operationally nimble. Cowen’s guidance implies closely monitoring Bitcoin’s trend and preparing rapid risk-management actions if ETH approaches prior highs, because a resistance break could precede a sharp pullback rather than confirm a new cycle.
Cowen’s outlook frames 2026 as more likely to deliver consolidation or correction than a clean Ethereum breakout. He urged investors and traders to treat any near-term ETH strength with heightened scrutiny and align exposure to the risk of a swift reversal tied to Bitcoin’s cycle.