MicroStrategy (MSTR) attracted fresh dip-buying after MSCI paused plans to exclude digital-asset treasury companies from its indexes on Jan. 6, 2026. The pause eased an immediate, index-driven selling threat, but the setup still leaves MSTR exposed to a potential 13% pullback.
The Jan. 6 decision removed what had been viewed as a near-term mechanical risk tied to passive rebalancing and forced outflows, and sentiment improved quickly. With the exclusion risk temporarily off the table, buyers stepped in and lifted the stock from recent lows.
MSCI confirmed Digital Asset Treasury Companies will remain in MSCI Indexes for the Feb 2026 review. A strong outcome for neutral indexing and economic reality. Thank you to our investors and the $BTC community.
— Strategy (@Strategy) January 6, 2026
Why the Relief Rally Doesn’t Solve the Core Exposure
Even with the MSCI catalyst, the rebound only addresses one pressure point and does not change the underlying sensitivity of the equity. MSTR remains a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, and that linkage can overpower company-specific narratives when crypto volatility rises.
That dynamic has shown up before, including episodes where fundamentals did not provide much protection. One cited example was Aug. 3, 2025, when shares fell about 12% despite strong earnings, underscoring how quickly crypto-driven risk can dominate the tape.
MICHAEL SAYLOR SAID LIVE ON CNBC THAT HE IS CONFIDENT THAT STRATEGY $MSTR WILL BE ADDED TO THE S&P 500
"IT WILL HAPPEN” 🚀 pic.twitter.com/nSmsL3Yd5h
— Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_) January 6, 2026
Market positioning signals also looked split as of Jan. 8, 2026, which matters for the durability of the bounce. The Money Flow Index was described as rebounding in a way consistent with retail-led dip buying, while the Chaikin Money Flow continued to trend lower, pointing to ongoing institutional selling.
The Overhang: Funding Strategy and Dilution Risk
Beyond flows, dilution remains a recurring concern in the equity narrative. Reporting described roughly 94% of recent Bitcoin purchases as funded through share issuance, a mix that can pressure per-share value if the market reprices the premium to the company’s BTC holdings.
Analysts have responded by tempering expectations and re-centering the thesis around concentrated drivers. The equity case is effectively a levered bet on Bitcoin appreciation combined with an aggressive capital strategy, and without renewed institutional inflows or a sustained BTC rally, a sizeable correction remains on the table.
For investors and treasury teams tracking MSTR, the near-term decision framework stays operational and measurable. Capital-flow indicators that separate retail momentum from institutional conviction, alongside Bitcoin’s price direction, will determine whether the rebound becomes durable support or a short-lived reprieve.