Iran’s crypto activity expanded to an estimated $7.8 billion in 2025, as domestic unrest, a weakening rial, and sanctions pushed more users toward on-chain alternatives, per Chainalysis. The data ties crypto usage to real-world stress events across 2024–2026, not just speculative trading.
Chainalysis linked demand to macro pressure, citing persistent inflation in the 40%–50% range and a multi-year decline in the rial as core drivers behind increased interest in Bitcoin as a store of value. Sanctions and limited access to traditional financial rails further reinforced crypto as a practical savings and payment workaround.
Geopolitical shocks and on-chain surges
The on-chain pattern tracked major incidents, with activity rising after the Kerman bombings in January 2024, spiking again around Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes against Israel in October 2024, and increasing during a 12-day conflict in June 2025. Across these episodes, crypto flows appeared to respond quickly to headline risk and uncertainty.
A sharper behavioral shift emerged around late 2025. Chainalysis compared Nov. 1 to Dec. 27, 2025 with Dec. 28, 2025 to Jan. 8, 2026, a period marked by a blanket internet blackout, and observed substantial increases in both average daily dollar amounts transacted and daily transfers to personal wallets. The blackout window coincided with a clear move toward self-custody under operational constraints.
Self-custody signals and concentration of actors
Chainalysis also described a widening and more complex participant mix, including state-linked activity. By Q4 2025, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was estimated to account for over half of Iran’s crypto ecosystem, with IRGC-associated addresses receiving more than $3 billion during the year. That concentration suggests crypto usage that extends beyond retail preservation into broader financing and sanctions-evasion dynamics.
During protests in late December 2025 and early January 2026, the trend toward self-custody became more visible, aligning with currency stress and intermittent connectivity. “Most telling is the surge in withdrawals from Iranian exchanges to unattributed personal Bitcoin (BTC) wallets,” Chainalysis wrote on Jan. 15, 2026. The interpretation was operational: self-custody and Bitcoin’s censorship-resistant design can preserve liquidity and mobility when conventional channels or networks fail.
Taken together, the indicators point to a structural shift in usage patterns. Crypto appears increasingly positioned as an operational store of value and continuity rail during periods of instability, not merely a trading venue. Analysts and policymakers will be watching whether the self-custody surge seen during the Dec. 28, 2025 to Jan. 8, 2026 blackout persists as macro conditions evolve, and whether on-chain signals stabilize or remain event-driven.