XRP is trading around $1.36, marking its weakest level since the November 2024 U.S. election. The break below the $1.60 support zone has opened a cleaner downside path toward the $1.00 psychological level.
This move carries weight because it reflects a broader risk-off tape, a leverage unwind, and lingering regulatory overhangs that have steadily chipped away at conviction since XRP’s post-election peak near $3.65 in July 2025. In practical market terms, the price action signals a reset in positioning rather than a short-lived dip.
Technical damage deepens after the $1.60 break
XRP slipped to roughly $1.36, representing about a 13% decline over 24 hours. The speed of the drop reinforces that $1.60, once a contested demand zone earlier in 2025, has decisively failed as support.
With $1.60 now behind price, the structure between the current range and $1.00 looks thin, with limited historical trading and volume to provide intermediate footholds. When a market enters a lightly traded band, downside moves can accelerate because there are fewer natural layers of demand to absorb selling.
Derivatives activity is leaning defensive rather than positioning for a quick rebound. Rising demand for put spreads and strangle structures points to participants prioritizing downside protection and volatility exposure over bullish conviction.
Macro drag and policy uncertainty shape the next phase
XRP’s path since the U.S. election has been heavily influenced by shifting sentiment, first rallying after Donald Trump’s November 2024 victory and later topping near $3.65 in July 2025 before momentum faded. From that high-water mark, the market has transitioned from optimism-driven inflows to more guarded risk budgeting.
Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin weakness, ETF outflows, and broader deleveraging across crypto have tightened liquidity and reduced the durability of bounce attempts. In a deleveraging regime, rallies often become exit opportunities rather than trend reversals.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a background constraint that can dampen institutional appetite for large directional exposure. Even when valuations look attractive on a chart, unresolved policy risk can keep positioning conservative and limit follow-through demand.
The near-term risk profile remains skewed lower, especially if XRP records a sustained daily close below roughly $1.40 on strong volume. A confirmed breakdown under that threshold would likely increase the probability of a move toward $1.00 given the limited support in between.
For holders and trading desks, the operational priority is execution and margin discipline as volatility rises. Forced liquidations can amplify downside, while market makers may widen spreads and reduce committed inventory, raising slippage risk during fast markets.