Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is facing a clearer exchange-valuation test as revenue, buybacks, and traditional asset trading expand. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has argued that investors may still treat Hyperliquid as a crypto derivatives venue, even as its business moves toward wider financial market infrastructure.
The debate now centers on whether that structure deserves comparison with established public exchanges rather than ordinary DeFi projects alone.
HYPE Token Revenue Model Draws Exchange Comparisons
Hyperliquid has crossed $1 billion in cumulative lifetime protocol revenue, while current estimates put its 2026 revenue near $800 million. That level of revenue puts Hyperliquid closer to the scale of some high-volume trading venues than many crypto applications, although the comparison depends on how protocol revenue and exchange revenue are defined.
The platform also routes about 97% to 99% of trading fees into open-market HYPE purchases. These purchases move through the Assistance Fund and create a direct mechanism linking trading activity with demand for HYPE.
Hougan said investors may be making “two errors” when valuing Hyperliquid. He said they may underestimate the size of its target market and the token’s claim on platform activity.
Hougan estimated that the platform generates between $800 million and $1 billion in annualized revenue. He also valued HYPE at roughly 10 to 14 times its buyback stream, a multiple he described as below some listed exchange comparisons.
Source: X
Meanwhile, the recent burn data adds more detail to that value-capture model. Hyperliquid generated $537,400 in fees over the last day and burned 7,530 HYPE, worth about $444,690. All-time burns have reached 47.28 million HYPE, valued at nearly $2.79 billion, representing 4.73% of the token’s 1 billion maximum supply.
Buybacks Link Platform Activity to HYPE Token Demand
The model differs from many DeFi tokens, where usage can rise without direct token value capture. Hyperliquid’s structure instead resembles a buyback model used by listed financial firms.
Hyperliquid began as a venue for crypto perpetual futures, but its activity has moved beyond digital assets. Hougan said nearly half of platform volume now comes from conventional assets.
Those markets include oil, silver, and the S&P 500. The platform also targets commodities, options, and prediction markets as it expands beyond crypto derivatives.
HIP-3, its permissionless market upgrade, added another revenue channel after launch, especially after hitting an all-time high in open interest. The upgrade reportedly generated $44 million within months, with half going to developers and half to additional buybacks.
Source: X
Concurrently, Hyperliquid has also been linked to Coinbase and Circle through a stablecoin-focused partnership. This arrangement could shift some stablecoin activity toward crypto trading venues and potentially support HYPE demand if Hyperliquid’s trading activity continues to expand.
According to Biwise CIO Matt Hougan, the next crypto cycle may involve stablecoins, tokenization, round-the-clock trading, instant settlement, and institutional DeFi. He named Hyperliquid and Robinhood as two platforms approaching that trend from different sides.
Hougan said current pricing may treat wider ambitions as free alongside the derivatives venue. His comment referred to Hyperliquid’s broader market ambitions beyond crypto derivatives.
Supply and Regulation Remain Main Valuation Tests
HYPE’s exchange-style valuation still faces supply and regulatory tests, even as buybacks support its demand structure. Only about 22% of the 955.31 million HYPE supply is currently circulating in the open market.
The remaining supply sits in locked allocations, ecosystem rewards, and future emissions extending into 2027. That structure creates dilution risk as new tokens enter circulation during regular unlock periods.
The July 2026 unlock of 9.92 million HYPE was worth more than $600 million. These tranches determine whether there’s enough demand for investors to take on extra supply in a fee-driven buyback.
Regulatory scrutiny is another potential challenge as Hyperliquid expands from crypto derivatives into additional financial products. Greater exposure to commodities, equities, and prediction markets could increase regulatory scrutiny, depending on how those products are structured and which jurisdictions they target.
Consequently, HYPE’s exchange-style valuation depends on whether Hyperliquid can turn platform activity into sustained token demand. Its buyback model gives it a clearer value link than many DeFi assets, but supply unlocks and closer regulatory review remain the main tests.