Bitcoin was trading below the $90,000 barrier on November 18, 2025, when an analyst described that level as a “close your eyes and bid” buying opportunity. The sharp drop erased all gains for the year and reopened an old debate: the tension between production costs, market fear and the stubborn persistence of institutional accumulation.
A market torn between fear, fundamentals and big-player behavior
On November 18, 2025 the price touched $89,426. In just six weeks Bitcoin had lost more than $30,000, effectively erasing 2025’s advance. Those arguing for buying in this range pointed to mining economics: a JPMorgan report estimated the cost to produce one BTC at around $94,000, suggesting a potential economic floor that forces miners offline if profitability collapses.
The Fear and Greed Index spent early November in “extreme fear,” with readings between 10 and 14. This index blends volatility, momentum and social activity, and it is often treated by contrarian investors as a signal that panic may be creating asymmetric opportunities.
Meanwhile, on-chain data showed that large holders continued accumulating below $107,000, while exchange balances kept falling. Both trends imply a slow but steady reduction in immediate sell pressure, even as headline ETF flows sent mixed signals. Outflows were heavy —including $523 million in redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT on November 19 and a weekly total near $2.19 billion— yet some major players kept buying. Even El Salvador increased its holdings during the plunge, a detail the report highlights as evidence of long-term conviction.
Historical Bitcoin returns after extreme fear
(Fear & Greed Index ≤10)Averages do not represent a forecast. pic.twitter.com/A14F9Yh82o
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) November 19, 2025
Still, not everything fits the optimistic narrative. LMAX strategist Joel Kruger warned that a real capitulation would arrive only with a clean break below $80,000, turning a key support level into resistance and accelerating forced selling.
Price projections diverged significantly. Some estimates place the 2025 range between $105,000 and $150,000, while long-term forecasts for 2040 and 2050 stretch into almost speculative territory. The analysis quotes Cameron Winklevoss praising sub-$90,000 levels as a rare opportunity, but even that statement is better read as institutional confidence rather than a guaranteed floor.
In the end, the “close your eyes and buy” thesis hinges on a mix of fundamentals, crowd psychology and on-chain evidence. Yet the risk remains clear: if $80,000 fails, the market could face a deeper and more painful capitulation. The next verified milestone is watching how Bitcoin behaves around that line in the sand.