CryptoQuant reports that the Bitcoin cycle has turned, flagging demand exhaustion as a signal of a potential bear phase. The assessment frames a shift in market dynamics in which prior buying support is no longer absorbing supply at the same pace, raising questions about near-term price pressure and participant behavior.
Demand exhaustion and market structure implications
CryptoQuant identified patterns it interprets as a turning point in the Bitcoin cycle, attributing the change to demand exhaustion. Demand exhaustion here refers to a phase where buying interest has weakened enough that previous price support cannot be sustained, aligning in their view with a transition toward a bear-market environment.
Bitcoin’s demand boom is fading.
This cycle ran on three spot demand waves, and the latest one looks like it’s rolling over.
Since early October, demand is below trend, which can stay bearish for price. pic.twitter.com/7IWnRscD8H
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 19, 2025
The report emphasizes a change in market breadth and cycle rotation from accumulation to distribution that can precede extended corrective phases. This interpretation links declining net buying activity to a broader reassessment of risk among market participants, suggesting that buyers are shifting from aggressive accumulation to more cautious positioning.
If demand exhaustion persists, the immediate implication is a higher probability of downward price pressure and increased volatility as the market rebalances. Traders may encounter wider bid-ask spreads, sharper intraday swings and greater execution risk as liquidity providers and leveraged positions adjust to reduced spot demand.
For institutions and funds that rely on cycle-based allocation models, a perceived turn typically triggers a review of exposure and risk limits. Market makers, execution desks and longer-term holders are likely to revisit inventory, hedging strategies and time horizons while monitoring on-chain demand indicators such as custody inflows, order book depth and accumulation metrics for confirmation or reversal of the signal.
CryptoQuant’s assessment ultimately frames the current condition as a potential cycle turn driven by weakening demand. The firm’s view signals a possible entry into a bear-market phase and underscores the need for participants to track subsequent trading and liquidity patterns to validate or challenge the demand-exhaustion thesis.