A record options expiry on Dec. 26, 2025 is positioned to reshape short-term price action in Bitcoin and Ethereum by concentrating derivatives exposure into a single clearing event. Market participants are already treating this expiry as a system-wide stress test for near-term price discovery and liquidity.
Why this expiry matters for near-term BTC and ETH dynamics
The year-end expiry, concentrated on major derivatives venues such as Deribit, aggregates unusually large open interest, with Bitcoin options representing roughly $23.6 billion in notional exposure. The contracts are scheduled to settle at 8:00 UTC, a timestamp when hedging flows and option conversions typically intensify. Positioning data cited in the text shows a put–call ratio of 0.38, described as reflecting a tilt toward downside protection among options buyers. Max pain is projected near $95,000–$96,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000–$3,100 for Ethereum, framing the strike zone where option sellers minimize aggregate losses at expiry. Max pain is also defined here as the price level where the largest number of options would expire worthless, concentrating seller gains.
gm to everyone who knows that the largest options expiry day of the year is here
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) December 26, 2025
Options mechanics can produce a recognizable pre-expiry pattern as dealers hedge in ways that compress volatility and then unwind into settlement. This dynamic can shift abruptly at expiry, restoring or even amplifying realized price movement once hedges come off. Elevated implied volatility readings cited at around BTC 32 and ETH 70 reinforce the risk of rapid repricing into and immediately after settlement. As a result, the text anticipates tighter ranges ahead of expiry and heightened execution risk during and directly after the 8:00 UTC clearing window.
By scale, this event is described as materially larger than recent notable expiries. The expiry is characterized as roughly two to three times the size of typical quarterly expiries and larger than prior multi-billion-dollar events estimated at about $3 billion to $18 billion. The concentration of exposure increases the probability of volatility cascades and liquidity dislocations, particularly where strikes cluster around major round-number levels. With derivatives playing a larger role in price discovery, expiry outcomes may transmit quickly into spot, futures, and funding markets through repricing of risk premia.
For crypto treasuries and institutional desks, the text flags a tighter operational risk envelope around the event. Key risks include execution slippage, abrupt funding-rate swings in perpetuals, and short-lived dislocations that can spill into stablecoin and RWA liquidity pools. The prevailing downside bias described in options positioning has heightened concern about mechanically driven moves, while the ultimate direction remains contingent on how dealers and large counterparties hedge or unwind at settlement. In this setup, flow behavior at expiry matters as much as directional narratives.
The Dec. 26 expiry is framed as a concentrated stress point for crypto derivatives and near-term price formation. Monitoring liquidity conditions and hedge execution around 8:00 UTC on Dec. 26, 2025 is presented as the next clear milestone for observing the expiry’s full market impact.