Stellar (XLM) lost the key $0.25 support in November 2025, a breakdown confirmed by both price action and a sharp surge in trading volume that signaled heavy selling amid a broader altcoin slump. The drop from $0.2491 to $0.2451 marked a clear failure of market defense, sending a strong warning to traders and treasuries managing exposure to digital assets.
XLM Breaks a Critical Level as Market Fear Deepens
The decline intensified after XLM broke below $0.2520, accompanied by a notable spike in activity at 05:00 UTC, when volume hit 36.3 million XLM, roughly 78% above its daily average. During that same minute, two unusually large trades — 1.71 million and 1.69 million tokens — revealed concentrated selling pressure, accelerating the downward move and confirming the severity of the sell-off.
This latest breakdown followed months of weakness. In September and October 2025, XLM repeatedly surrendered major support levels, first slipping below $0.40, then breaking under $0.34 during a 63.1 million-token volume surge, and later failing to hold $0.32 after a 5% decline. The pattern illustrates a consistent downtrend where every rebound lost momentum before reclaiming meaningful ground.
Market conditions made the situation worse. A broad phase of risk aversion gripped the crypto landscape, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping into “extreme fear,” Bitcoin dominance falling to 59.1%, and BTC trading under $110,000, while major altcoins suffered double-digit losses. For lower-liquidity assets like XLM, these conditions amplified volatility and deepened the drawdown.
Even in this environment, Stellar advanced on the technical front. The Protocol 23 upgrade in Q3 2025 introduced improvements designed to optimize Soroban smart contracts, targeting up to 5,000 TPS and 2.5-second block times — enhancements meant to strengthen the network’s long-term performance and competitiveness.
Stellar also saw growing enterprise and institutional interest. Stablecoin pilots with Visa, the deployment of $99 billion in tokenized RWAs by WisdomTree, and new integrations such as Bitcoin.com Wallet reinforced real-world use cases, while XLM’s inclusion in a Hashdex-managed, SEC-approved ETF highlighted emerging demand from traditional markets. Economically, XLM maintains a circulating supply of 31.19 billion tokens out of a 50 billion cap, with a market valuation near $8.08 billion.
Looking forward, analysts highlight DCA opportunities near $0.24–$0.25 and short-term recovery targets around $0.32, though bearish projections point to a potential fall toward $0.18–$0.20 if current supports continue to fail. Longer-term forecasts range widely — from $0.79–$1.50 by late 2025 to optimistic scenarios above $6.00 by 2030 — reflecting both the potential and uncertainty surrounding XLM. For now, the key question is whether the asset can regain momentum or continue sliding into deeper support zones.